Week 5 - Probability

Probability

Why

How are probabilities assigned to different events? This is a question we will see is not always so simple to answer. If we know the likelihoods for every possible event then we can study how the probabilities are distributed to the different possible outcomes. A probability distribution refers to either the table or graph of all possible likelihoods. Once this distribution is created we can see important overall patterns like determining if an investment is lucrative or what the average result from a random event will be.

Learning Objectives

• Learn the basic notation and terminology for probability
• Determine whether two events are mutually exclusive.
• Determine whether two events are independent.
• Calculate probabilities using the Addition Rules and Multiplication Rules.
• Construct and interpret Contingency Tables.

Performance Criteria

• The learner will calculate and interpret probabilities.
• The learner will use contingency tables to calculate false positive and false negative probabilities.

Click on "Textbook" to view the reading assignment for this experience or read sections 3.1-3.4 from your print or digital copy.

Note: Various versions of the text can be found through the links in the Course Information folder.

Chapter 3 This is a video by the authors covering chapter 3. Just watch the parts relating to section 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, & 3.4

Plan

1. Review - Read the above components and post any questions in the forum below. 
2. Practice - Complete the practice exercises that follow.
3. Think - Research and contribute to the Wiki on Probability. 
4. Apply - Complete the Application Problems and upload your completed files.

If you have any questions about the content (readings, problems, etc.) then post in the "Questions about Week 5" forum. 

The class will work together to create a wiki for the topic of probability. I will provide an outline and each of you will add at least one point (one or two complete sentences). Use the following guidelines

• Type your name in parentheses next to your contributions
• Try and keep it general.
• Check to make sure you are not repeating someone else.
• If you correct someone else, use strike-through (example) instead of deleting what they wrote. 
• Put things in your own words, don't just copy from the book.
• Make sure you put your response in the right place, use my outline as the guide.
• Use correct symbols or formulas where necessary. The Math Symbols button is available for you to use.

Basic Probability

Contingency Table: False Negatives

Relative Frequency Table

Expected Value

Here is a spreadsheet that contains examples from class.